Dmitry Brizhatyuk

Dmitry Brizhatyuk

(DMEE-tree BRI-JAH-took)

Moody's Analytics, London

I am an Assistant Director in Research at Moody’s Analytics, London.

My current research primarily focuses on the nexus between asset and credit market cycles, short-run fluctuations, and growth (both in a closed- and open-economy context). More recently, I also developed an interest in the macroeconomic effects of uncertainty shocks.

Interests

  • Macroeconomics
  • International economics
  • Applied time series

Education

  • PhD in Economics, 2020

    University of Washington

  • MSc in Economics, 2013

    Paris School of Economics, Novosibirsk State University

  • BSc in Economics, 2011

    Novosibirsk State University

Working papers

Scarring effects of trade policy uncertainty

This paper studies the macroeconomic consequences of trade policy uncertainty with an emphasis on its effects on productivity growth. We build a small open economy model with nominal rigidity, endogenous growth through the introduction of new products, and time-varying volatility of import tariffs. Import tariff uncertainty shocks act as aggregate supply shocks. They cause a temporary improvement of the current account along with the real exchange rate appreciation in the medium run. In addition, an increase in import tariff uncertainty causes a sharp decline in the introduction of new intermediate products, which is detrimental to productivity growth and prolongs the effect of the shock. We show that endogenous risk premia is the key channel transmitting the shock to the broader economy and study role monetary policy in shaping it. (Draft available upon request)

Housing market cycles, productivity growth, and household debt

Housing market crashes are associated with household deleveraging and a very persistent decline in economic activity in an unbalanced panel of 50 countries. The persistence of the output response is driven by a slowdown in productivity growth and capital accumulation. To interpret these stylized facts, I construct a two-agent (borrower-saver) dynamic general equilibrium model with occasionally binding collateral constraint tied to housing equity. Productivity grows endogenously in the model through forward-looking innovation investment. When the preexisting level of debt is sufficiently high, negative housing demand shocks cause the collateral constraint to bind and trigger deleveraging. The endogenous slowdown in TFP growth emerges as one of the adjustment margins during this process, prolonging the real effects of a crisis. The initial shock is amplified by a negative feedback loop between deleveraging, borrowers’ housing wealth, and growth. I use the calibrated model to draw implications for macroeconomic policy during episodes of deleveraging.

Medium-term cycles: the role of occasionally binding collateral constraints

Why are emerging small open economies are more prone to swings in trend growth than developed? This paper emphasizes the role of occasionally binding credit constraints that cause state dependence and asymmetry in the link between economic activity and endogenous growth. Negative shocks are more detrimental to TFP growth in financially vulnerable economies prone to leverage-deleverage cycles than in economies that can optimally borrow through the cycle.

Code

Solving DSGE models with Dynare

The following examples are available at github.com/DBrizhatyuk/DSGE-archive.

Replications of models with level shocks. Among other things, solutions illustrate the use of an external steady state file:

Replications of models with uncertainty shocks. Illustrate the use of higher-order perturbation solution and calculation of IRFs at the ergodic mean in the absence of shocks:

Optimal policy in Dynare:

  • Ramsey-optimal monetary policy in a simple New Keynesian model

NB: the codes are written and tested under Dynare 4.5.6

Teaching

University of Washington, Foster School of Business

  • Macroeconomics (MBA)                       15 quarters            Evaluations

University of Washington, Department of Economics

  • Intro to Macroeconomics                       5 quarters             Evaluations

  • Intro to Microeconomics                        2 quarters             Evaluations

Novosibirsk State University, Department of Economics

  • Intermediate Macroeconomics             1 semester